A montagem das chapas de deputado federal tem causado preocupação de muitos deputados. Mas alguns estão lembrando do efeito Solidariedade em 2022. De olho nos votos de Maria Arraes, cuja irmã era candidata a governadora, Fabíola Cabral fez a parte dela e teve mais de 40 mil votos, mas com a abertura das urnas foram menos de 200 mil na chapa completa. Ou seja, em vez de puxadora, Maria usou os votos de Fabíola pra se eleger. Se Maria tivesse atingido os 200 mil votos, as duas vagas estariam garantidas.
Pra garantir com segurança as duas vagas são 400 mil votos, o Republicanos teve um pouco mais do que isso e não elegeu a terceira vaga. Então pra começar a sonhar em duas vagas, será entre 340 e 360 mil votos, pra sonhar com a terceira, será entre 450 e 500 mil votos.
Tem muito partido prometendo duas vagas, mas com sérias dificuldades de efetivamente garantir a quantidade de vagas que pretende eleger. Quem bem souber, procura legendas que tenham puxadores de votos e que tenham também uma cauda eleitoral segura. Se for confiar nas projeções, pode acabar sem mandato.
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